(From The California Aggie.)

Possessing genuine precognizant abilities is a feat that no human has been able to demonstrate, although many have claimed it. Journalism is about reporting facts and allowing readers to draw their own conclusions. The California Aggie reported that mentalist Adrian Saint correctly predicted the Super Bowl, but The Aggie and its readers have many reasons to be skeptical about it.

First, this kind of magic trick has been done before. The well-known and accomplished Las Vegas magicians Penn and Teller did a more elaborate one two* years ago. The prediction was written on paper, placed inside a pickle jar, suspended over an intersection during the game and protected by armed guards.

Their correct prediction was removed from the jar immediately after the game in full view of the cameras. But they’re magicians, not mentalists, right?

According to wikipedia.org, mentalism is a form of stage magic that works by creating the illusion that the performer can predict the future, read someone’s mind or move objects without touching them. Although their techniques are the same, mentalists often distance themselves from traditional magicians by chalking up their abilities to psychology or statistics.

The Aggie first reported that Saint could predict one’s first crush, age and elementary school. This was based upon an interview wherein this information was given freely to Saint - he even asked how the crush’s name was spelled.

At the end of the interview, a piece of paper was removed from a wallet that lay on the table, which contained this information. Interestingly, the name of the crush was spelled correctly, but the elementary school was spelled wrong.

Now I know next to nothing about magic tricks and the techniques involved, but this suggests that the “prediction” was written during - not before - the interview. Calling it a prediction is therefore problematic. The same goes for the purported Super Bowl prediction.

The game results were played off of an audio tape unlocked at the Monday event. But no one verified that there was no CD in the stereo, or that the recording tabs were removed from the tape. It wasn’t until a week later that The Aggie noticed that the tabs were gone, which could have been removed at any time after the results were dubbed onto the tape.

Magicians are usually one or two steps ahead of the audience, having figured out ways to accomplish tricks that would not occur to most people in the moments after a trick.

This sets up a false dilemma, known in logic as the fallacy of the excluded middle. From a limited pool of explanations, the audience arrives at the false conclusion intended for them. The Aggie didn’t even know it would be on an audio tape until the event, so they were in the same position as the audience.

The Friday before the game, Saint was reported as predicting that it would be a high-scoring game. Now I know even less about sports than magic, but a high-scoring game is in excess of 21 points. At 21-10, the recording played after the game was right on, but the only verifiable prediction made before the game was wrong.

Skepticism is not about disbelieving extraordinary things just because people are motivated to believe in them - that’s called cynicism. Skepticism is the radical notion that extraordinary claims should be supported by equally extraordinary evidence. You do not need to know how the trick was done to justifiably disbelieve in its veracity.

Then again, maybe I am wrong. Saint maintains that nothing in his shows is set up or staged, and offers a $25,000 reward to anyone who can prove otherwise. (Also see here.) If his predictions are indeed genuine, then let him deposit this amount in a third-party account to show that this is a serious offer.

The Aggie reported that Saint predicted the Super Bowl, but I contend that there is insufficient evidence to warrant such a claim. As Michael Shermer told me, “Why aren’t psychics falling over themselves to declare Penn and Teller psychic? Because it’s a magic trick!”

Sources in chronological order: Adrian Saint’s website, first Aggie article, Davis Wiki page, second Aggie article, Third Aggie article, Sacramento Bee article about Aggie coverage. This article in the Aggie.

* Correction: Penn & Teller accomplished their Super Bowl feat three years ago, not two. It was too late when I realized the error to change the version that went to print. Maybe if I followed sports…

Adrian Saint followed up with this response:

The Mentalist Strikes Back

Ever since I predicted the results of Super Bowl XL about a month ago, people have been talking about me - some good, some bad. For the most part, I’ve been sitting back and laughing at the things people have been saying and how they have been speculating about how I do what I do. So, I thought I’d finally respond publicly.

First of all, like I have said numerous times before, I claim no supernatural powers. The more I say this, the more people think I am lying and they want to believe that I do have powers. What a mentalist does is best described by my fellow mentalist Gerry McCambridge - the best mentalist in the world in my opinion. He describes mentalism as “the art of blurring the line between intuition and illusion.” Some of the things I do are “illusions” and other things I do are very real. After seeing my show, I leave it up to my audience to decide what is real and what could have been an illusion.

Second, a mentalist isn’t a magician. In fact, I really dislike the majority of magicians. I can’t stand them! Penn and Teller are magicians, great magicians as a matter of fact, but they are not mentalists. Although I respect them as being good entertainers, they have a problem of keeping their mouths shut. The same can be said about their mentor The Amazing Randi. He is best known for trying to debunk the psychic Uri Geller 30 years ago.

I have no problem with people who are skeptical. Skepticism is healthy. It has advanced science and medicine over the years. But it isn’t healthy when you are so close-minded to say nothing is possible.

Finally, people always accuse me of having my entire show set up and staged, and that I have inside information on people. However, I do offer a $25,000 reward if you can prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that I use any secret assistants, hidden electronics or confederates in my show. The money is in my twin’s account and he has access to it. But I never have to worry about giving it away because nothing is set up or staged. Why would I offer such a big reward and then set up something?

I think people believe I set things up because what I do seems impossible. They have been conditioned to not think outside the box.

I want to clear up that there was no CD in the CD player, and the record tabs were broken off the cassette before it was played.

To show that I am also a nice guy, here are some free predictions. You can bet on them if you want, but if you lose money, don’t blame me. But I could be right: I did predict the Super Bowl.

2006 NHL Champion: Detroit Red Wings

2006 NBA Champions: Detroit Pistons

2006 NCCA Men’s Basketball Champion: Villanova

Super Lotto Plus # for March 18, 2006: 29, 22, 3, 9, 19 and the Mega Number is (use your own intuition and figure it out yourself)

Well, what you think, folks? Going to go buy a lottery ticket?