On February 3rd, 2006, The California Aggie ran a peculiar story. Mentalist has mind in endzone with Super Bowl bet described how a local student says that he has found a way using statistics to predict the outcome of Super Bowl XL, and has given his prediction to the newspaper. A self-proclaimed “Mind-reader,” he claimed in the article that he does not read minds, and is not a magician, however, he has described himself many a time before as a magician. Amir Ghasri, who has gone by the stages names of Amir Saint, Amazing Amir, and Adrian Saint, has had several stories written about him in The Aggie. To the paper’s credit, they wrote about him more than they wrote about visiting creationists in the same period of time.

Conflicting statements about doing magic and not doing magic, and reading minds but not reading minds are enough to furl an eyebrow. But the most bizarre aspect of the article was that it announced that the performer was betting $1,000 over his super bowl prediction… with the newspaper.

I’m going to take you through a little detective story, with a few real twists and turns, in the deciphering of a mystery. I started completely in the dark, as most everyone else, but I think it can be both entertaining and instructive to share how a little logic, imagination, and footwork can light a path to the truth. Not everything that I now know was discovered in the order that I will present it to you, but the logical sequence of key events will remain intact. I’ll try to present it like a mystery, complete with hints. I’ve already revealed one explanation of how he did it, but you will see in the coming posts how this pans out.

In the first part of How to predict the Super Bowl, I will take you back a bit in time to explain how a student newspaper at a major university got involved in this trick.

Setting the stage

About midway through January, 2006, Amir Ghasri approached The California Aggie and asked them if they would cover his event. He said that he was going to predict the outcome of the Super Bowl with a talent of his, and hoped that he could get media attention. The student and “mentalist” performer identified himself as Adrian Saint, and was invited to the Aggie office to do a demonstration of his talents.

The event had been in his mind for two years, maybe more. Perform an amazing feat, and make sure that the local paper covers it. But how?

In the Aggie office, Adrian Saint gave a little performance for the Editor in Chief Daniel Stone, and Melissa Taddei, the Managing editor, surprising and entertaining them. He explained that he was a “mentalist” which means that he uses psychology and statistics to either get people to think something he wants them to, figure out what they are thinking, or make predictions that seem impossible. He told them that he was going to try to use his skills to predict the upcoming Super Bowl game and he wanted the Aggie to cover it. While the Editor in Chief Daniel Stone thought it over, Adrian Saint decided to show them that he was serious about his abilities.

He said that he would predict the score of Super Bowl XL, and thus the winner of the game from the score. He would seal his prediction in a box and give it to them, to make sure that he couldn’t change his prediction after the game. He needed to get them to cover his event – and before it happened at that.

He then made them an offer – should he be off by so much as a single point – he would give the Aggie $1,000. If his prediction is right, its right, and the Aggie prints it (no money paid to him – just publicity). He told them that he wanted, and I quote, to make it “worth your while.” Daniel Stone bit – they would cover his prediction.

Stone suggested that Adrian come down to The Aggie right after the game and open his prediction right there. He protested, saying that it must be revealed at a show he would put on the following Monday. They agreed, and Stone said that when he gets the box, he would not tamper with it, and would keep it hidden away until the event where it would be opened.

Adrian Saint left, happy knowing that he could now do a show. For without The Aggie, there would be no prediction, and no show. Well, there could have been, but it would have been a colossal waste of time and money. Plus, for years he had wanted to rope in a newspaper to make headlines, well, by predicting headlines. They assigned a reporter, Christina Lee, to interview him for a story that would run before the event.

The Interview

During that interview, Christina Lee talked to him about his talents, prediction, and he impressed her with a few mental tricks. Before she began her sit-down interview with him, Adrian showed her a folded piece of white memo paper with red questions marks on it. This is the conversation that followed:

Adrian: Christina, do you see this folded piece of paper?

Me: yes

A: Okay, well this is going to go right into this black wallet and I’m

going to put the wallet right here in front of you next to your laptop.

And that is precisely what he did.

Christina reflected, “We went on with our interview and the entire time I saw that the black wallet was still next to my computer and his hands were where I could see them. After some time he asked me,”

A: “Christina, do you remember the first boy you ever had a crush on, how old

you were, what school you were going to and what his name was?”

C: Yes

A: All right, well tell me about it

C: I was 6 or 7 years old, his name was Yousif and I was going to Millikin

Elementary at the time.

A: Yousif? How do you spell taht? (sic) Y-o-u-s-e-f?

C: No. “s-i-f“

A: Oh okay, what country is that name from?

C: It’s Libyan

The interview then proceeded as normal. They talked about the Super Bowl prediction, how he makes his predictions, and how he has trouble getting (or keeping) dates. He said that he once did something that surprised and scared his date.

As instructed beforehand, she brought a metal fork to the interview. Then Adrian Saint got down on the floor, on his hands and knees, and placed the fork on the floor. Without touching it with his hand, he “pushed” it across the floor. Amazed, Christina later asked how he did it. She asked if he could have done it if the fork wasn’t metal. Naturally, her first inclination was to think that he did it with magnets hidden up his sleeve. He said that he could have done it naked.

Yikes - now I know how he scared away his date! I’ve seen him in person.

Christina finished interviewing Adrian for the story, and prepared to report that he was going to predict the score of Super Bowl XL using the scores of past games. He said that he knew that it would be a high-scoring game. And he was going to make the best guess he could.

At the end of the interview, he asked her if she remembered the piece of paper in the wallet. She did, and he told her to take it out and read it. This is exactly what it said.

Dear Kristina,

Thank you for meeting with me today regarding my Super Bowl idea. I do

appreciate it. By the way, I believe the name of the first boy you had a

crush on was Yousif when you were 6 years old and attending milkin

elementary. Sincerely, Adrian Saint.

She never saw the wallet leqave her sight. It was there, sitting nest to her laptop as she asked him questions for the story. If he had switched the wallet with another, she would have seen a different one, right? This guy must be serious – if he can guess things like this just from talking to someone over the phone! Her name was spelled wrong, but it was still amazing.

When the story printed in The Aggie, it was larger than life. Adrian Saint, predicting the super bowl, waving $1,000 around to show he’s genuine and serious. And it would all be revealed at a performance the following Monday. Who could resist? Because of how it was presented, when I read the story I thought it was a real prediction, but that the $1,000 bet was a stunt. Either he was an honest performer who could stand to lose a thousand smackers in a publicity effort, or he would never cough it up when he got his prediction wrong.

The bet was illegal, unenforceable, and besides the Aggie could not accept such money. They planned to donate that $1,000 to a non-profit to settle the contradiction. And I had some gardening that I would have rather done. Multiple fishy details, and even I sat out this show, and that was my first mistake. Not taking it seriously. Because the Aggie didn’t take it seriously enough.

How could someone predict the Super Bowl from past games? How could they predict who was someone’s first crush before you told them? And WHAT IS A MENTALIST?

You already have all the information you need to figure out how he knew her first crush.

Definitively.

What’s the solution to this puzzle? Don’t spoil it for everyone else.

Stay tuned for part II of How to Predict the Super Bowl.