Episode 78 of the Mindcast is up!
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Update: 4-11-2008: Science Debate 2008 is hosting an edited copy of the interview, with just the stuff about the debate. You can download it here.
Show topics: Read More…
It turns out that 2007 WD5, the asteroid heading toward Mars, will not hit the red planet. (Darn!) Here’s the Space.com story on the matter, but what I particularly liked was this part:
The new odds were released one day after astronomers with NASA’s NEO office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, Calif., lowered 2007 WD5’s chances of striking Mars from 3.6 percent to 2.5 percent, or about a 1-in-40 chance, on Tuesday. After analyzing results from a new round of observations between Jan. 5 and Jan. 8, scientists now estimate the asteroid will make its closest pass by Mars at a maximum distance of about 16,155 miles (26,000 km).
JPL researchers said that they are 99.7 percent confident that 2007 WD5 will pass no closer than 2,485 miles (4,000 km) from the martian surface.
What you’ve just read was their confidence interval, a statistical concept. Read More…
Over the break, I couldn’t help being fascinated by the prospect of an asteroid smacking into Mars. At a 1-in-75 chance, the possible January impact of 2007 WD5 into Mars. Then, the news reported that the chances were tripled! That sounds like a lot, but it just means that WD5 now has a 1-in-28 chance of impact. Doesn’t sound too rosy. However, there’s still time for more observations to be made, and a better estimate to be derived. Or, we could just wait until the 30th of January to find out what happened!
You know what, I hope it hits. Yes, if I had the power to intervene and violate mechanistic causality in the favor of striking the planet Mars with 2007 WD5, I would. By putting it that way, that means I’d be using magic. Why the destructive bent, is this some post-modernist artsy desire? No, it’s science! Read More…
Note the timestamp. That’s right, the Sidereal New Year isn’t until 6 pm on January 1st, 2008. That’s because, as each year adds 6 hours, every four years we add one calendar day. Well, the Earth hasn’t gone all the way around the sun relative to the stars (thus, sidereal) until it has taken up those 6 hours for every year. Since 2007 is the third year since the last leap year, then the sidereal new year is 18 hours into the calendar year. As a leap year, 2008 will add another 6 hours to make 24 total hours, but then take them all away with leap year day. Tip to remember: leap years are the only years where the sidereal new year (sun-Earth-stars) and the calendar year (clock-midnight) are the same.
Just another excuse to party. Go here if you want to know more. Much more.
Episode 71 of the Mindcast is up!
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Episode 70 of the Mindcast is up!
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(Via Bad Astronomy) Two years ago the rovers Spirit and Opportunity landed on Mars and started crawling around taking pictures for eager scientists. Now that the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has arrived, it has been taking its own snapshots of the Mars surface, including the rovers themselves. Read More…
Apologies for not getting this out on Monday.
Nick Matzke at the National Center for Science Education has indexed one of the most bizarre claims levvied against evolutionary science. He was reading a book by Wiker and Witt, two antievolutionists affiliated with the Discovery Institute, and near the end, they concocted the most amazing argument ever seen - That Charles Darwin undermined the foundation of mathematics. Read More…
